for events beginning on
Monday, August 15
M Triple Jump
Olympic and two-time World champion Christian Taylor was
ranked second in the world among all athletes behind only Ashton Eaton in 2015.
He won the World title in Beijing and scared the world record; his winning
59-9/18.21 jump set the American record and just missed the 60’ barrier. He has won 18 Diamond League meets in the
last 4 years. ‘Nuff said, he’s the favorite.
This season Taylor has won 4/5 Diamond League meets but
suffered an upset at the US Olympic Trials when he finished 2nd to
Will Claye. However, a loss in the Olympics would be huge, but not entirely
unexpected if it’s to Cuba’s Pedro Pichardo. Pichardo had a 59/17.98 jump of
his own last year, and he and Taylor pushed each other farther all season.
Pichardo was 2nd to Taylor in Beijing; remarkable that his
58-2/17.73 should be 19” behind Taylor’s winner.
Pichardo also was 2nd at ‘13 Moscow Worlds behind
France’s Teddy Tamgho, who, most
unfortunately is the poster boy for the toll the force of the triple
jump can exact on the human body. His injury list reads like a record of past
World championship years: ’11 – broken ankle, ’13 – broken left leg, ’15
ruptured Achilles, and heartbreakingly, a broken ankle at the French
Championships in June just after he had jumped his way back into Olympic
contention with his seasonal best (by far) of 56-3¼/17.15
Pichardo’s teammate, Alexis Copello, won the Diamond League
meet that Taylor did not; the veteran has a World bronze from ’09 and a 4th
in ’07; he was a finalist in London. That he should have won a Diamond League
meet and backed it up with a very consistent season of 3-4-5-6 in the other
Diamond League meets should give his competitors pause.
Chris Benard does not have the deep resume of his
better-known US teammates, but in much the same way that 3rd in the
Olympic Trials got him where he wanted to go this year, his three 4th
- place Diamond League finishes serve
notice that should a single one of the bigger names falter, he is ready to
pounce.
Chinese jumper Bin Dong was the popular winner of the World
Indoor title in Portland in March, but he has not had the deep season needed to
make him a medal pick.
As noted, Will Claye won the US Olympic Trials; the US champ
won triple jump silver in London as well as long jump bronze. While he’s had a relatively thin season in
terms of number of meets, his record is far deeper – and more importantly,
farther – than Copello’s.
Taylor and Pichardo have separated themselves from the
field, and Claye and Copello should duke it out for bronze.
1. Christian Taylor, US
2. Pedro Pichardo, Cub
3. Will Claye, US
W 200m
(Note: I’m including my original text submitted before the atstat.org prediction contest entry was
due on Thursday, August 10, the day before Olympic track and field began. I’ll
note updates as necessary. Picks represent those made with the information
available on August 11, but I’ll note progress in the events, such as in the
women’s distances and sprints.)
Dafne Schippers dominates the world list with 5 of the top
ten 200m times, including the world leader at 21.93. She won the gold medal at
’15 Worlds in a remarkable 21.63 to put her #3 on the all-time list behind only
Florence Griffith-Joyner and Marion Jones (whose time was legal before she was
caught for drugs).
The United States is fielding one of its youngest Olympic
teams in history, and one of the places it shows most dramatically is in the
women’s sprints. Perhaps nothing is more symbolic of this shift than Jenna
Prandini’s lunge at the line to put herself ahead of veteran star Allyson Felix
by a hundredth of a second and onto the 200m squad in the US Olympic Trials.
Torie Bowie won that race in 22.25, with Deajah Stevens just
.05 back in 2nd, but it’s that one-hundredth between Prandini and
Felix that marks the change from one generation to the next in American
sprinting. The US duo of Deajah Stevens (21) and Jenna Prandini (23) are likely
finalists in their first - but not last - trip to the Olympics.
Jamaica’s Elaine Thompson was ranked #3 in the world last
year and was only .03 behind Schippers at Worlds. She withdrew from this year’s
Jamaican national championships but passed muster on the medical watch list;
she had been awaiting clearance from the Jamaican federation to compete. (As is
evident now, she feeling just fine, thank you! She won the 100m on Saturday
night.)
Question marks abound about the Jamaican team. Veronica
Campbell-Brown and Shelly-Ann Fraser Pryce also have been in the Jamaican
M.A.S.H. unit. When they’re ‘on’ they are among the world’s elite sprinters;
not picking them feels like heresy, but there are very legitimate grounds for
wondering whether or not they can survive multiple rounds. Who knows, maybe in
an Olympic swansong for Jamaica, they’ll pull a fast one on us.
Thompson and World 100m bronze medalist Tori Bowie - with a
PR of 21.99 - seem to be the biggest challenges to hearing Het Wilhelmus (Dutch national anthem) played in the Olympic stadium
since 1992 when Ellen van Langen stunned all but the Dutch with her 800m win in
Barcelona. As outstanding as she is, I think that Bowie has room to improve. She
is one of the hottest sprinters in the world right now; note that her
10.78/21.99 PRs have been run in or since the Prefontaine Classic at the end of
May.
Shaunae Miller (BAH) may well double here but has a much
stronger chance for a medal at 400m. Dina Asher-Smith (GB) finished 5th
in the great ’15 World Championships race and set a national record of 22.07
(imagine running 22.07 and finishing 5th!). It was the best-ever
mark for 5th place.
Murielle Ahoure (CIV) won the season-opener Diamond League race
in Shanghai but hasn’t competed at the distance since. Will she be doubling
back after the 100m?
And if the Dutch national anthem is played in the Olympic
stadium, I’ll be standing and singing it, word for word, 56 years after I first
learned it as an 8-year-old when I lived in the Netherlands for two years.
1. Dafne Schippers, Ned
2. Torie Bowie, US
3. Elaine Thompson, Jam
(Note: this morning’s start lists for Jamaica have Elaine
Thompson, Veronica Campbell-Brown, and Simone Facey as their entrants. I think
Thompson and Torie Bowie should still be medalists, with Thompson now the
favorite. Schippers did not look fluid in the 100m final and she has hinted at
possible injury problems.)
M 3,000m
Steeplechase
The Kenyan selectors have made this a much clearer race as
much as by whom they chose for their Olympic team as by whom they left off. The
first 5 places in this year’s Diamond League standings are occupied by Kenyans,
yet this is a bit misleading as Evan Jager (US) has stayed away from the
Diamond League circuit.
Conseslus Kipruto has won all five Diamond League races this
year – a remarkable feat of dominance against almost all of the world’s best.
Interestingly, those with the next best DL records were left
off the Kenyan team. Jairus Birech was second behind Kipruto in three of the DL
races and Paul Koech was second the other two. Birech was 4th at
last year’s World Championships and was ranked #1 in the world; Koech was
ranked #5. Neither is going to Rio. It’s nice depth if you can get it.
Ezekiel Kemboi is the acknowledged master of this event. He
has won four World and two Olympic titles; add to that 3 World silvers and you
just might have the single greatest all-time in this event. However, he’s had a
thin competition schedule and his fastest time this year at age 34 is 8:14.19.
Don’t let that deceive you; his five major championship wins
have all been in times over 8:00.00, with his slowest gold his 8:18.56 London
Olympic win. He was third in the Kenyan Trials in a race that didn’t tell us
much; teammates Brimin Kiprop Kipruto and Conseslus Kipruto went 1-2 ahead of
him; the three had separated themselves from the pack and finished in 8:27.68,
.86, and .95, over four seconds ahead of 4th.
Brimin Kiprop Kipruto won the Olympic title in ’08;
Conseslus Kipruto has won silver at the last two Worlds behind Kemboi. B. K.
Kipruto has finished 2-1-5 in the last three Olympics; his World Championships
tally is two bronzes, a silver and a gold, and one of those bronzes was won as recently
as last August in Beijing.
I’m intrigued by Evan Jager’s approach this year. After his
8:00.45 American record in Paris last year in spite of a fall, he said that he
put too much pressure on himself to live up to the ‘what if’ questions that
race generated. (In other words, without the fall over the last barrier, what
on earth would he have run – 7:56? 57? 58?)
Jager is clearly holding his cards close and says he is
preparing for any type of race that develops. I think his best chance for a
medal will come from a race that’s very fast from the start; if the race is won
in 7:55, he’ll break 8:00 and medal. But it’s more likely to be slower with a
mad dash to the podium over the last 1,000m. Five of the last majors in a row
have been this type of race, and Jager, who has finished 6-5-6 in his last
three majors, does less well in this type of race.
The main question will be: what does Kemboi have up his
sleeve? It’s a great race in the making: two Olympic champions against the
young two-time silver medalist looking to make his mark on Olympic history,
with the new kid from the United States itching to get on the podium.
Kemboi is like Bolt: he’s #1 until he’s not.
1. Ezekiel Kemboi, Ken
2. Conseslus Kipruto, Ken
3. Brimin Kiprop Kipruto, Ken
M 400 Hurdles
Let’s start with a look at 2015 Worlds.
Kenya’s Nicholas Bett, who was off the radar screen, won out
of lane 9 in 47.70, a great place for symbolic as well as actual placement of
one of the two lowest seeds of the race. Second was Russian Denis Kudryavtsev,
who will not be competing here due to the Russian drug ban. Third was a runner
as unheralded as Bett, Bahamas’ Jeffrey Gibson in 48.17.
This year’s US Olympic Trials winner, Kerron Clement, was 4th
in the Beijing race, and Michael Tinsley, the third 2016 US team member, was
last in Beijing after he made the acquaintance of a number of hurdles on his
ever-slower way home.
This was an uncharacteristic place for him, as he won
silvers in London and Moscow. Note that he has qualified for 4 consecutive
Olympic/World teams. Tinsley won the first two Diamond League races this year,
and in the remaining three, the wins wealth has been spread among Yasmani
Copello (Tur, 29), Javier Culson (Pur, 29), and Kerron Clement (30).
Clement is the hottest hurdler coming into Rio as his
biggest wins and fastest times have been in July. He followed his 48.50 at the
Olympic trials with 48.40 in the London Diamond League meet. Clement is much
decorated in this event: he is two-time World champion (’07 and ’09) and he
mined Olympic silver in ’08.
Behind him in London? Culson and Copello in 2nd
and 3rd, with three-time major meet finalist L. J. van Zijl (Rsa)
and GB’s Jack Green also under 49.00 in a very deep field in what was an
accurate preview of the Rio final.
Culson has two World silvers and London bronze on his
sparkling resume, though 2012 is the last time he won a major meet medal. He
has backed up his Diamond League Stockholm win with two DL 2nds this year.
Van Zijl, 31, has been a major meet finalist 3 times, and
Beijing bronze winner Jeffery Gibson (Bah) has been hanging around the lower
reaches of a couple of Diamond League meets.
Here’s a bar bet I’ll win: seven of the eight finalists in
this Olympic will not be in the sport four years from now. Byron Robinson (US,
21) is the youngster in this aging field and is perfectly positioned to be the
400m hurdler of the future. Making the final would be a terrific achievement
for him.
Remember, he just beat Michael Tinsley at the US Trials –
and I have Tinsley picked for 3rd.
And who showed up to finish 5th in the rain in
Stockholm? None other than Nicholas Bett, who preceded that with two Diamond
League 6th place finishes. He just doesn’t seem to be in the same
form as last year; join me after the race while I dine on my words.
1. Kerron Clement, US
2. Javier Culson, Pur
3. Michael Tinsley, US
W Discus
World and Olympic Champion, Sandra Perkovic (Cro), seems a
heavy favorite in this event. But that’s what we said last year, even though
Cuba’s Denia Caballero had a longer seasonal best than Perkovic going into
Worlds – where Caballero soundly defeated her. Caballero’s huge first-round
throw shook Perkovic’s confidence, and Caballero went on to dominate the
competition.
Is this year ‘second verse same as the first?’
Perkovic is more dominant than ever. She is 5-0 in Diamond
League meets, while Caballero has three 3rds to her credit. She won the
European title by a whopping 4.3m - over 14’ - with the German trio of Julia
Fischer, Shanice Craft, and Nadine Muller in her wake in 2nd, 3rd,
and 4th.
Dani Samuels (Aus) and German veteran Nadine Muller have two
Diamond League seconds each this year, and once again it seems the question is:
who will win silver and bronze? Muller has World silver and bronze to her
credit, but needs to master notorious nerves to realize her full potential.
Samuels won ’13 Worlds in Moscow but dipped to 6th in Beijing. I
like how her season is developing: she was over 67m/219-10 at the beginning of
May in Shanghai and just crossed that barrier again on July 29.
Yaime Perez (Cub) had long throws in February and June, but
has modest (4th and a 5th) Diamond League results; she
was 4th in Beijing and sits in 2nd place on this year’s
world list. Yet her June throw scared 68m/223-1.
Meanwhile, note that Ashley Whitney (US) has finished 4-5-6
in her three DL meets and was 9th in Beijing. Making the top 8 would
be a terrific achievement for this tremendously talented US Olympic Trials
champion who is widely viewed as a US thrower of the future. Might she make it
thrower of the present? It would not be a surprise for her to finish as high as
5th in this deep and accomplished field.
1. Sandra Perkovic, Cro
2. Dani Samuels, Aus
3. Denia Caballero, Cub
M 110m Hurdles
With Russia’s Sergey Shubenkov out due to his country’s drug
DQ, and with the inspirational story of the last two seasons, the US’s Aries
Merrittt, having missed the US team by 1/100th of a second, two of
the top 3 finishers at Beijing Worlds are absent from this competition.
Jeff Porter (US), apparently the only member of his family
still a US citizen (see women’s hurdles), ran a seasonal best of 13.21 to make
the US team, but his remaining marks and places just don’t add up to a medal
pick.
Ronni Ash was 2nd in the US Trials ahead of
Porter, though his competitive record leaves much to be desired; his last title
of any note was the NCAA 2009 crown. At the same time, there’s much we could
have learned but didn’t when he was subject to a very controversial false-start
DQ in his World Championships heat in Beijing.
Omar McLeod (Jam) got the wins at the two earliest Diamond
League meets, Doha and Shanghai. He won the World Indoor title in Portland and
has scorched a 12.98 to lead the World lists; he has 5/7 top times on this
year’s list.
Orlando Ortega (Sp) has more recent Diamond wins at Rome and
Monaco, and he preceded those with a third at Doha. He has won 6/9 finals this
year and that third at Doha is his lowest finish of the season; he won the
Spanish Championship on 7/24 in 13.09.
The French duo of Dmitri Bascou and Pascal Martinot-Lagarde,
6th and 7th on the world list at 13.12 and 13.17, are
almost certain finalists. Martinot-Lagarde has a better indoor championships
record than outdoor, with two World silvers and a bronze. Bascou has shown
great late-season form with a win at the European Championships followed by a
Diamond League win in London, in swift times of 13.25 and 13.20.
No hurdler in the world is hotter than the US’s Devon Allen.
He has been at the start line of major championships four times in the last two
years: 2014 NCAA and US National Outdoor, and the same combination in 2016,
except that in ’16 we called it the Olympic Trials.
He won all four.
The reason you see a gap in 2015 is that he blew out his
knee while playing wide receiver for the University of Oregon.
One more time: Dude,
it’s time to stop playing football.
I’d be hard put to think of a time I’ve picked a gold
medalist with less international experience. I think that for Allen the greater
challenge than winning the Olympic final will be making it. A whisker between
Bascou and Ortega for bronze.
1. Devon Allen, US
2. Omar McLeod, Jam
3. Orlando Ortega, Sp
W 400m Hurdles
Delilah Muhammad impressed in the US Olympic Trials by
winning all three of her rounds with times of 55.33, 54.14, and 52.88. Muhammed
won silver in Moscow in ’13, finishing second to none other than Zuzana Hejnova
of the Czech Republic; Hejnova’s winning time was .05 faster than Muhammad’s
Olympic Trials winner.
Hejnova won bronze in the London Olympics and then started
her domination of this event with a Worlds win in Moscow, struggled with a
major foot injury in ’14, and returned to a repeat World title in Beijing.
This has all the makings of a classic matchup, and the world
record should be nervous. Yuliya Nosova-Pechonkina’s (Rus) 52.34 has stood since
2003. The Olympic record is in jeopardy as well; Melaine Walker’s (Jam) 52.64
has stood since ’08.
Eilidh Doyle (GB) (previously Child – ahhh, that’s who that
is!) sits 7th on the world list at 54.09. She has won two World
bronzes and has tremendous strength built from years of relay work on very
successful British 4x400m teams. And thanks to the ‘power of 10’ website for
this nugget: she won the Scottish Schools Under-13 butterfly (swimming) title
two years in a row. So that’s where her remarkable strength comes from.
Ashley Spencer was 2nd in the US Trials at 54.02;
the Moscow silver medalist finished 2nd in the ’13 Worlds race to
Hejnova. She has tremendous foot speed, as witnessed by her silver over 60m at
the World Indoor Championships in Portland in March.
In the Diamond League this season, Doyle has won twice as
has Jamaica’s Janeive Russell, who ran 53.96 to win in Rome.
Teenage sensation Sydney McLaughlin is the question mark of
this meet. She set the world junior record of 54.15 in finishing 3rd
at the US Trials and is bursting with talent.
Hejnova has been off the radar screen with an Achilles
injury this year, but late word is that she ran 39.44 over 300m hurdles on 8/2
in Cheb, Czech Republic.
Two are clear of the field and the rest are remarkably
evenly matched at a very high level. In terms of marks, this will be one of the
deepest events of the meet, and records are sure to be set for place. While
watching the top two, don’t forget to watch what may be one of the best battles
of the meet for bronze.
As for me, I’m going with the upset.
1. Delilah Muhammad, US
2. Zuzana Hejnova, Cz Rep
3. Ashley Spencer, US
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